Monday, December 21, 2009

An Analysis of Cornell vs. Davidson from Sunday

Cornell’s Offensive Explosion Masks Potential Defensive Concerns

By Michael R. James
December 21, 2009

On an afternoon with too many heroes to name, Ryan Wittman ultimately gave Cornell the neutral floor matchup against St. John’s - and a potentially redeeming third shot at a Big East foe - that it so desperately wanted with a 30-footer at the buzzer to hand the Big Red a 91-88 overtime win over Davidson at Madison Square Garden.

But that victory did not come without many lingering questions.

How good is this Davidson team that boasts just one Division I win, but myriad quality losses and a top 10 strength of schedule?

Can Cornell get consistent stops on defense without forcing turnovers?

How did such an experienced and battle-tested Cornell team allow Davidson to flip the script on it in the second half, matching the Big Red’s 44-31 halftime margin after the intermission and forcing Big Red guard Louis Dale to hit a layup at the buzzer just to force overtime?

And speaking of Dale, where was he for the first 39 minutes and 59 seconds of that game?

The list could go on and on - unquestionably the downside of being the Ivy’s standard bearer during a season in which the league already expects more from its teams.

The first half of yesterday’s contest was vintage Cornell. Wittman and guard Chris Wroblewski hit four of their six shots from three, as the team went 6-for-10 from behind the arc. The Big Red scored 44 points on 34 possessions while posting an EFG of 69 percent. Defensively, Cornell shut down Davidson from behind the arc (the Wildcats shot just 3-for-12) and turned the Wildcats over eight times or on 24 percent of possessions.

The only negatives were the backdoor cuts for open layups and 40 percent offensive rebounding rate that Davidson managed, which allowed the Wildcats to within 13 of the Big Red at halftime.

After the intermission, Davidson would turn the ball over just once more in regulation while getting to the rim with relative ease and connecting on 5-of-8 shots from deep. Cornell’s defensive intensity and awareness sagged noticeably as the Big Red simultaneously slumped on the offensive end.

The Wildcats outscored Cornell 32-17 over the first 14 minutes of the second half to take a 63-61 lead, but Wroblewski scored his only five points of the half in succession to stabilize the Big Red, at least on the offensive end. From there, it was a track meet, as Wittman, who had struggled throughout the early part of the second half, finally came alive en route to 13 second-half points on a below-average 46 percent EFG shooting.

Despite the offensive outburst, Cornell disturbingly could still not manage any stops, and Davidson appeared to have the game wrapped up after a turnover off a rebounded free throw by senior center Jeff Foote sent the Wildcats’ Jake Cohen to the line with eight seconds left and Davidson already up 75-73. But Cohen missed both, setting the stage for Dale’s coast-to-coast, buzzer-beating layup to force overtime.

The Wildcats’ offense didn’t slow down a bit in overtime, turning the ball over just twice, while hitting 5-of-7 shots from the field. Wroblewski, Dale and Wittman all connected from deep as the Big Red hit seven of its eight shots in the extra session to take an 88-84 lead with 28 seconds to go. But Davidson’s outstanding freshman J.P. Kuhlman nailed a three, Dale missed both of his free throws on the other end, and Kuhlman hit 1-of-2 from the line to knot the game at 88. The rebound of Kuhlman’s back-end miss, however, found its way quickly up the floor to Wittman, who stole the show with a 30-footer at the buzzer for the 91-88 win.

The dueling buzzer beaters from Cornell to force overtime and seal the victory capped another amazing offensive performance from the Big Red. But they also served to conceal another disappointing defensive effort against a once-powerful, now woefully average mid-major opponent.

It was Cornell’s third highest EFG allowed (57.1 percent), second-lowest turnover rate forced, and fourth-lowest defensive rating in any contest all year. That the Big Red still managed the victory, though, highlighted Cornell’s likely Ivy-record setting offense as much as it did the Big Red’s highly suspect defense.

And while the questions surrounding the latter still linger, the only thing that really matters is that Cornell’s gutty, veteran squad will get its much anticipated title bout and resume building opportunity against St. John’s in Madison Square Garden tonight.

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